Forecasting Volatility with GARCH Model-Volatility Analysis in Python

In a previous post, we presented an example of volatility analysis using Close-to-Close historical volatility. In this post, we are going to use the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model to forecast volatility. In econometrics, the autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model is a statistical model for time series data that …

Implied Volatility of Options-Volatility Analysis in Python

Volatility measures market expectations regarding how the price of an underlying asset is expected to move in the future. There are two types of volatility: historical volatility and implied volatility. In a series of previous posts, we presented methods and provided Python programs for calculating historical volatilities. In this post, …

Are AI-Powered Hedge Funds Outperforming?

Last month, institutionalinvestor.com reported that AI-powered hedge funds outperformed their peers, Hedge funds with artificial intelligence capabilities showed a huge competitive edge over investors that didn’t use AI, new research indicates. AI-led hedge funds produced cumulative returns of 34 percent in the three years through May, a report Tuesday from …

Banks Hold Many Illiquid Assets

The trend in the increased holding of risky assets continues. Because of Covid-19, the big banks now hold more illiquid, opaque assets than before. Lenders including Barclays Plc, Citigroup Inc., BNP Paribas SA and Societe Generale SA reported a surge of more than 20% in their most opaque assets during …

Convertible Bond Issuance Has Increased

Convertible bond issuance has increased during the Covid 19 pandemic. From a funding perspective, convertible bonds have many attractive features for corporates, which have become more important during the pandemic. …In volatile markets, the value of the embedded option in a convertible bond increases. The asset class also becomes more …

How to Forecast Implied Volatility

How do you determine the volatility of an unlisted entity, and more generally, how do you forecast volatility? These are non-trivial questions. There is an interesting discussion on Stackexchange: Here is a question I had for a long time but I never asked. Let’s take an easy example, AirBnb will …