Which System Has The Lowest Risk of Ruin?

Would you rather choose a trading system that wins small amounts most of the time but when it loses, the loss is big? Or would you rather choose a trading system that loses small amounts most of the time but when it wins, the gain is big? In this blog post, we will examine such systems from the risk of ruin perspective.

The risk of ruin is the probability of an investor’s eventual bankruptcy due to a series of losses that exceed his/her capital. It is essential for any trader to understand their risk of ruin, as it will heavily influence the trading system they ultimately develop.

We will use Monte Carlo simulations to perform our analysis. We examine the following 3 trading systems

System Percent win

Win

Loss

Expectancy

A

10%

$90

$10

0

B

50%

$18

$18

0

C

90%

$10

$90

0

For each system, we generate 1000 trades randomly. If a trade is a win, then we’ll make the amount in the column “Win”, and if it’s a loss, then we’ll lose the amount in the column “Loss”. For example, for system A, if we win, we make $90 and if we lose, we lose $10.

To simplify the analysis, we assume that all 3 systems have zero expectancies. The total winning/losing amounts of each system equal $9000. We start with an initial capital of $1000. The figure below shows the first 100 simulated paths for system A. It’s clear that the system has zero expectancy as the terminal wealth equals the starting capital.

To calculate the probability of ruin, we first count the number of paths that go below $0 at any time in their evolutions. We then divide the number of such paths by the number of iterations which is 10000.

The table below summarizes the results.

System

Risk of Ruin

A

10.22%

B

0.18%

C

9.95%

We can see from the results that system B has the lowest probability of ruin. This confirmed that traders should avoid systems that have high win percentages but suffer occasional large losses. Short volatility trading systems are in this category. Traders should also avoid systems that have low percentage win rates.

Article Source: Which System Has The Lowest Risk of Ruin?

Further questions

What's your question? Ask it in the discussion forum

Have an answer to the questions below? Post it here or in the forum

LATEST NEWSEU struggles to agree Russian oil product price cap, seeks Friday deal
EU struggles to agree Russian oil product price cap, seeks Friday deal

BRUSSELS — EU countries will seek a deal on Friday on a European Commission proposal to set price caps on Russian oil products, after postponing a decision on Wednesday amid divisions between member states, diplomats said. The European Commission proposed last week that from Feb.…

Stay up-to-date with the latest news - click here
LATEST NEWSBiden moves to slash U.S. credit card fees, app charges
Biden moves to slash U.S. credit card fees, app charges

WASHINGTON, Feb 1 (Reuters) – President Joe Biden on Wednesday unveiled fresh efforts to slash credit card late fees and drive down the prices that Apple Inc and Google parent Alphabet Inc charge on mobile app stores. The move is part of a larger policy…

Stay up-to-date with the latest news - click here
LATEST NEWSLate Subway co-founder’s stake donated in potential tax shield
Late Subway co-founder’s stake donated in potential tax shield

NEW YORK — Subway’s late co-founder has left his 50% stake in the sandwich chain to his philanthropic foundation, protecting billions of dollars in proceeds from the company’s potential sale from the reach of the U.S. tax authorities. The Peter and Carmen Lucia Buck Foundation…

Stay up-to-date with the latest news - click here
LATEST NEWSFed raises rates a quarter point, expects 'ongoing' increases
Fed raises rates a quarter point, expects 'ongoing' increases

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday released its decision on interest rates following its two-day meeting.

Stay up-to-date with the latest news - click here
LATEST NEWSTrump starts 3rd White House bid lagging in campaign cash
Trump starts 3rd White House bid lagging in campaign cash

NEW YORK (AP) — Former President Donald Trump’s political operation started the year with about $25 million socked away for his recently launched 2024 presidential campaign, a sum that is substantially less than what he had on hand just one year ago, new campaign finance…

Stay up-to-date with the latest news - click here

Leave a Reply