Category: DERIVATIVES

Variational Autoencoders for Arbitrage-Free Volatility Modeling

Machine learning and AI are transforming investing by enabling data-driven decision-making, uncovering hidden patterns, and automating complex strategies. From algorithmic trading and portfolio optimization to risk management and sentiment analysis, AI-driven models process vast amounts of data with speed and precision, identifying opportunities that traditional methods might miss. Most ML …

How Bitcoin Options Compare to Equity Index Options: Volatility, Correlation, and Skew

Bitcoin options are derivative contracts that grant investors the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell Bitcoin at a predetermined price before a specified expiration date. Major cryptocurrency exchanges offer options on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, including select tokens. However, the vast majority of trading takes place on …

Forecasting Covered Call ETF Performance

A covered call ETF is an exchange-traded fund that employs a covered call strategy to generate income while maintaining exposure to the underlying assets. This strategy involves holding a portfolio of stocks and selling (or “writing”) call options on those stocks to collect option premiums. Covered call ETFs are particularly …

Measuring Jump Risks in Short-Dated Option Volatility

Unlike long-dated options, short-dated options incorporate not only diffusive volatility but also jump risks. The commonly used VIX and SKEW indices cannot clearly identify the jump risk component in options volatility. To better isolate and present the jump risk component, Reference developed a stochastic jump volatility model that includes …

Risks of Short-dated Options Order Flow

Options, particularly short-dated ones, are gaining popularity among retail traders, with their trading volume increasing significantly. While some research argues that short-dated options do not impact the market, certain market practitioners hold opposing views. Reference investigated the risks associated with short-dated options order flow. It examined the effective trading …

VIX Manipulation: Evidence from SPX Options and Market Data

Market manipulation refers to intentional actions taken to distort the normal functioning of financial markets, often to benefit specific individuals or entities at the expense of others. These actions can include spreading false information, rigging prices, or creating artificial demand or supply. A notable example is the LIBOR manipulation scandal, …