Forecasting is important in finance, as it helps investors, analysts, and institutions make informed decisions under uncertainty. Up to now, most forecasting techniques have relied on traditional time series methods, such as ARIMA, GARCH, and exponential smoothing. However, with recent advancements in machine learning and artificial intelligence, these technologies have …

In the dynamic landscape of commerce, the concept of substitute products plays a central role in shaping consumer choices, influencing market dynamics, and steering the strategies of businesses. This comprehensive exploration delves into the multifaceted realm of substitute products, dissecting their definition, impact on industries, associated risks, the nuanced interplay …

Forecasting stock prices is a challenge due to the non-stationary nature of price time series and the noisy data inherent in these price sequences. Linear regression was a frequently used prediction method, but recent advancements in computing technologies have given rise to more sophisticated approaches like Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), …

The Fractal Market Hypothesis (FMH) is a theory that suggests that financial markets behave in the same way as natural phenomena and are subject to the same physical laws as found in nature. It suggests that financial markets are composed of similar patterns which repeat over and over again at …

Volatility of an asset is a measure of how much the price of that asset varies over time. In other words, it is a measure of how “risky” an investment in that asset is. The higher the volatility, the greater the risk. There are two main types of volatility: historical …

In the financial world, time series analysis is frequently used to predict stock prices, interest rates, and currency exchange rates. Econometric models are a type of time series analysis that uses historical data to forecast future asset prices and volatilities. Reference applied the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model …

It’s commonly believed that Gold is a good diversifying asset, and for many years, this was true. Gold is often seen as a safe-haven asset, which means that investors turn to it when they are worried about the stock market. However, Gold has not always been a good investment. In …

We have previously discussed the price dynamics of the SP500 volatility index, VIX. A recent article investigated the trending/mean-reverting properties of several volatility indices. The paper’s objective is to use the autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) model to extend research on Hurst exponent to the universe of volatility …

Econometrics is the study of economic hypotheses and theories using mathematical and statistical models. The field has garnered significant attention over the last decade due to its significance in economics. To most people, econometrics may sound like a complex subject. However, they can use some books to acquire knowledge of …

Since the inception of the idea of econometrics, many economic analysts have used its model to explain the interrelatedness of fundamental economic factors. These factors include labor, capital, interest rates, as well as government’s fiscal and monetary policies. Econometricians use a ton of data available to them to analyze these …