Author: Harbourfront Technologies

Enhancing Volatility Portfolio Returns with VRP Timing

The volatility risk premium (VRP) refers to the compensation investors receive for bearing the risk of higher-than-expected market volatility, often manifesting as the difference between implied and realized volatility in options markets. The VRP is not constant; it changes according to the market regime. Reference proposed a timing scheme …

Using Hurst Exponent to Time the Market

The Hurst exponent is a statistical measure used to evaluate the long-term memory or autocorrelation of a time series, indicating whether a system exhibits trending behavior, mean-reverting characteristics, or randomness. A Hurst exponent greater than 0.5 signifies the existence of long-range dependence, implying that previous trends are prone to persisting …

Predicting Intraday and Daily Volumes Using ARIMA Model

Volume is an essential, integral market data. However, it receives much less attention in research literature compared to price data. Understanding and being able to model volume dynamics is important because buy-side firms must plan and time their trades to avoid significantly impacting the market, revealing their identities, and incurring …

Improving Pairs Trading Profitability

Pairs trading is a market-neutral strategy that involves taking long and short positions in two correlated assets to profit from their relative price movements. However, the profitability of pairs trading has been diminishing due to, in part, its growing popularity. Reference examined the profitability of pairs trading in the …

Quantile-on-Quantile Spillover Analysis of International Stock Markets

The relationship between two assets can be examined using various techniques such as correlation, lagged correlation, cointegration etc. Reference presented a new method called Quantile-on-Quantile Spillover Analysis to examine the relationship between two assets. This approach involves estimating Quantile Vector Autoregression (QVAR) models across different quantiles and then calculating …