Category: RISK MANAGEMENT

Black Swan and Volatility of Volatility

We have written many blog posts about the increase in volatility of volatility. See, for example Is Volatility of Volatility Increasing? What Caused the Increase in Volatility of Volatility? Similarly, last week Bloomberg reported, The sudden rise in volatility in February and March showed that even with strong growth fundamentals, …

Correlation Breakdown

The US equity market just reached new highs, and it broke many records.  For example, Bloomberg reported that the US market had not been overbought like this in 21 years. The S&P 500 Index’s superlative start to 2018 is making a contrarian technical indicator look silly. The benchmark gauge is …

Liquidity Risk and Exchange Traded Funds

The sell-off in the high yield bond Exchange Traded Funds space last month reminds us of an important risk factor: liquidity. But what exactly is liquidity risk? According to Aleksander Kocic, derivatives strategist at Deutsche Bank AG, Liquidity transforms the risk of default (the ability that the debtor may not …

Is Value at Risk a Good Risk Measure?

Value at Risk (VaR) is an important risk measure that large financial institutions use for managing the risks and allocating capital. Wikipedia defines VaR as follows: Value at Risk (VaR) is a measure of the risk of investments. It estimates how much a set of investments might lose, given normal …

VIX Futures Leads Cash Market: Tail Wags Dog

Last Thursday witnessed, again, another dramatic increase in volatility. The volatility index VIX spiked 44 percent to 16.04%, its highest daily close for the year. As shown below, the VIX futures term structure inverted in the short end. Two days before the event, Helen Bartholomew of Reuters warned that the …

How Long Will Low Volatility Last?

Will this low volatility persist and can a large market decline happen in this environment? Aaron Brown recently published an article in which he pointed out that a large jump in realized volatility happens only when the VIX is above 20. …the important thing is that there aren’t big surprises …

How to Find Cheap Hedges

In the previous posts entitled Where are the Cheap Hedges for Equity Portfolios? Now Is The Time to Hedge, But The Cost of Insurance Can Be Expensive, we outlined some solutions for finding inexpensive hedges in this low volatility environment. In this post we will continue to explore some more …