We have discussed how the volatility index, VIX, and the yield curve can be used to predict recessions. On a similar topic, a recent paper argued that machine learning models are outperforming logistic regression when it comes to predicting financial crises. It explored the reasons behind this and showed …

The yield curve is a graphical representation of the relationship between the yields of bonds with different maturities. The yield curve has been inverted before every recession in the United States since 1971, so it is often used as a predictor of recessions. Indeed, the spread between the long-term and …

There is a very interesting discussion on stackexchange on how to determine the credit risks of a startup. What would be the ideal way to develop the IFRS9 ECL model for startup fintech when there is no historical data. There are 2 answers to this question (as of November 2021) …

In the financial market, the logarithms of asset prices are often modeled as a normal distribution. Elsewhere in life, many things are normally distributed: people’s height, education levels, talents, working hours in a day, etc. Success, as measured by wealth, however, is not normally distributed. In fact, it’s heavily skewed …

Portfolio hedging is a risk-management practice that uses a number of strategies to mitigate the risks of any given portfolio. Tail risk hedging in particular is one of the techniques used in equity portfolio management. It basically involves buying put options in a certain amount to partially or fully protect …

For many of us, inflation has been a constant worry in recent years. One way to protect ourselves from the effects of inflation is by hedging our investments. So let’s take a look at how can we hedge against inflation. What is Inflation? Inflation is a type of rising in …

Volatility estimators are a useful tool in volatility trading and risk management. We have discussed several types of volatility estimators, ranging from the simple Close-to-Close Historical Volatility to more complex ones like the Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang volatility. As discussed in Reference , volatility estimators can also be used directly in delta-one trading …

Accounting numbers are prevalent in financial reporting, business valuation, and investment management. They’re so frequently used that the practitioners rarely asked pragmatic questions such as: are they useful, do they account for some meaningful risks, can they be used to price assets. A recent article attempts to bring some …

Inflation refers to the decrease in a currency’s purchasing power. It can come as a result of various factors. Inflation isn’t necessarily a bad thing, as it can also accompany positive changes. However, it usually has adverse effects on businesses and individuals. Inflation risk, also known as purchasing power risk, …

Previously, we elaborated on why hedging is an important tool for risk management. We illustrated the importance of hedging with examples from the commodity, mortgage back securities, and foreign exchange markets. A recent paper evaluated the hedging effectiveness of various range-based volatility estimators. Among them, we can find the …